Assignment #3 - Birth Rate and Ideology - William Cai

Nations With Catholic Percentages Higher Than 85%

Mexico
Roman Catholic: 82.7%
Birth Rate: 18.61 births/1,000 population (world rank 104)
Infant Mortality Rate: 16.26 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 103)
Life Expectancy: 76.86 years (world rank 72)
GDP Per Capita: $15,600 (world rank 88)
Average Education Level: 14 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 51.3% 

Brazil
Roman Catholic: 73.6%
Birth Rate: 14.97 births/1,000 population (world rank 133)
Infant Mortality Rate: 19.83 deaths/1,000 (world rank 93)
Life Expectancy: 73.02 years (world rank 127)
GDP Per Capita: $12,100 (world rank 106)
Average Education Level: 14 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 21.4% 

France
Roman Catholic: 83-88%
Birth Rate: 12.6 births/1,000 population (world rank 158)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.34 deaths/1,000 (world rank 215)
Life Expectancy: 81.56 years (world rank 15)
GDP Per Capita: $36,100 (world rank 40)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 7.8% 

Spain
Roman Catholic: 94%
Birth Rate: 10.14 births/1,000 population (world rank 193)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.35 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 214)
Life Expectancy: 81.37 years (world rank 16)
GDP Per Capita: $31,100 (world rank 47)
Average Education Level: 17 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 21.1% 

Portugal
Roman Catholic: 84.5%
Birth Rate: 9.59 births/1,000 population (world rank 200)
Infant Mortality Rate: 4.54 deaths/1,000 (world rank 188)
Life Expectancy: 78.85 years (world rank 49)
GDP Per Capita: $23,800 (world rank 65)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 18% 

Italy
Roman Catholic: 80%
Birth Rate: 8.94 births/1,000 population (world rank 210)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.33 deaths/1,000 (world rank 216)
Life Expectancy: 81.95 years (world rank 11)
GDP Per Capita: $30,600 (world rank 48)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 19.6%

Nations With Catholic Percentages Lower Than 5% (Outgroups)

Thailand
Roman Catholic: not even listed
Birth Rate: 12.66 births/1,000 population (world rank 157)
Infant Mortality Rate: 15.41 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 107)
Life Expectancy: 74.05 years (world rank 115)
GDP Per Capita: $10,300 (world rank 116)
Average Education Level: 12 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 7.8%

Egypt
Roman Catholic: less than 0.4%
Birth Rate: 23.79 births/1,000 population (world rank 67)
Infant Mortality Rate: 23.3 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 80)
Life Expectancy: 73.19 years (world rank 124)
GDP Per Capita: $6,700 (world rank 143)
Average Education Level: 12 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 20% 

Singapore
Roman Catholic: less than 1.4%
Birth Rate: 7.91 births/1,000 population (world rank 221)
Infant Mortality Rate: 2.59 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 221)

Life Expectancy: 84.07 years (world rank 4)
GDP Per Capita: $61,400 (world rank 7)
Average Education Level: N/A
Population Below Poverty Line: N/A


Analysis

Looking at the data and statistics, it appears to me that a high percentage of Catholicism does not have a correlation with a high birth rate. For example, Spain has the highest percentage of Roman Catholics (94%), yet has a birth rate of 10.14 births/1,000 population, which is lower than the birth rate in Mexico (82.7% Roman Catholic), Brazil (73.6% Roman Catholic), and France (83-88% Roman Catholic). 

In fact, ranking the six countries by ‘Roman Catholic %’ and by ‘Birth Rate’ yields two very different lists:
Roman Catholic % (high to low): Spain, France, Portugal, Mexico, Italy, BrazilBirth Rate (high to low):  Mexico, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy

The lists do not seem very correlated at all. In addition, the outgroups that I considered further support the lack of correlation. Egypt in particularly has an almost negligible percentage of Catholicism, yet the highest birth rate out of all the countries I looked at. Overall, this lets me conclude that there is actually a very low correlation between Catholicism and a high birth rate, at least in the sample space of countries I considered.

Next, we can consider other variables besides Catholicism to see if there is a better correlation with a high birth rate. We can do this by applying the same logic as before and ranking the countries based on each variable.  Looking at life expectancies and GDP per capita, there does not seem to be much correlation at all. However, comparing birth rates with infant mortality rates does seem to give some sort of correlation. The list of countries is:Infant Mortality Rate (high to low): Brazil, Mexico, Portugal, France, Spain, Italy

If you compare this to the list above (ranking Birth Rate), there seems to be a slight correlation, as a lower birth rate is correlated with a lower infant mortality rate. While this correlation may be rather weak, it certainly is more comparable than percentage of Catholicism. The same can be said for ‘Average Education Level’, where a lower birth rate tends to lead towards a higher education level.

However, the factor that seems to have the biggest correlation is “Population Below Poverty Line”. Here is the ranking:Population Below Poverty Line (low to high): Mexico, Brazil, Spain, Italy, Portugal, France

If you compare this again with the above ranking for “Birth Rate”, the two lists are very similar, with the exception of France. Even with a sample size of only six countries, there seems to be a rather strong correlation, where a high birth rate is correlated with a low “Population Below Poverty Line”. This makes sense conceptually because in the developed countries I considered families in poverty would be less likely to have children, so a lower amount of poverty in an overall economy would lead to a higher birth rate.

This analysis shows that there are factors displaying stronger correlation than that of percentage of Catholicism, showing that other factors are likely correlated more closely than religious belief. In conclusion, it seems as though while there is a technologically conservative prohibition against birth control among Catholic populations, the lack of correlation between “Birth Rate” and “Roman Catholic %” shows that the prohibition does not really have an influence on birth control use, which would have been reflected in a high birth rate.