Assignment #3 - Birth Rate and Ideology - Justine Lee

Does a high percentage of Catholicism actually have a correlation with a high birth rate or are there other variables (such as infant mortality, poverty levels) that appear to correlate more closely with birth rates than religious belief?

6 Nations with Catholic Percentages Higher than 65%

Mexico 
% of Catholics- 82.7%
Birth Rate- 18.61 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 4.94 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 16.26 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 76.96 years
Average Income- $12,732
Literacy Rate- 93.5%
Unemployment rate- 9.8%

Spain
% of Catholics- 94%
Birth Rate- 10.14 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 8.94 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 3.35 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 81.37 years
Average Income- $22,847
Literacy Rate- 97.7%
Unemployment rate- 25.1%

Italy
% of Catholics- 80%
Birth Rate- 8.94 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 10.01 deaths.1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 3.33 deaths/1,000 population
Average Lifespan- 81.95 years
Average Income- $10,900
Literacy Rate- 99%
Unemployment rate- 10.6%

Peru
% of Catholics- 84.1%
Birth Rate- 18.85 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 5.97 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 20.85 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 72.98 years
Average Income- $15,200
Literacy Rate- 89.6%
Unemployment Rate- 6.8%

Panama
% of Catholics- 85%
Birth Rate- 18.91 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 4.73 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 11.01 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 78.13 years
Average Income- $15,900
Literacy Rate- 94.1%
Unemployment Rate- 4.4%

France
% of Catholics- 83-88%
Birth Rate- 12.6 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 8.96 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 3.34 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 81.56 years
Average Income- $36,100
Literacy Rate- 99%
Unemployment Rate- 10.3%

3 Nations with Catholic Percentages Lower than 5%

Taiwan

% of Catholics- 4.5%
Birth Rate- 8.61 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 6.83 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 4.55 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 79.71 years
Average Income- $39,400
Literacy rate- 96.1%
Unemployment rate- 4.2%

Turkey
% of Catholics- <1%
Birth Rate- 17.22 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 6.11 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 22.23 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 73.03 years
Average Income- $15,200
Literacy Rate- 94.1%
Unemployment rate- 9.2%

Saudi Arabia
% of Catholics- <1%
Birth Rate- 19.01 births/1,000 population
Death Rate- 3.32 deaths/1,000 population
Infant Mortality Rate- 15.08 deaths/1,000 live births
Average Lifespan- 74.58 years
Average Income- $31,800
Literacy Rate- 87.2%
Unemployment- 10.6%

Conclusion

The countries I chose to research were Mexico, Spain, Italy, Peru, Panama, France, Taiwan (outgroup), Turkey (outgroup), and Saudi Arabia (outgroup). Given the data on these nine countries, I do not believe that having a high percentage of Catholicism correlates with a high birth rate.

The six nations I selected each had populations that were 80% Catholic or more. Birth rates, in these countries, had a huge range from 8.94 to 18.91 births per 1,000 populations. The CIA World Factbook states that the average birth rate per thousand population is 18.9. That means that in that range, the highest country scored barely above the mean birth rate. Only one country scored above it. In fact, Italy and Spain had some of the lowest birthrates in the world. Furthermore, of all the nine countries I examined, the country with the highest birth rate was Saudi Arabia, a country with less than 1% of a Catholic presence in its population, at a rate of 19.01 births per 1,000 people. This led me to conclude that having a high Catholic presence in a country has no effect on the national birth rate.

Then what does influence birth rate? I then looked at different factors that I though would be key including literacy rate, average income, infant mortality rate, death rate, average lifespan, and unemployment. Even looking at these varying trends, it was hard to find strong correlations with birth rate. This could be attributed to the fact that potentially relevant items such as technological advancement and government presence are difficult to quantify and compare from country to country. The factors that that seemed to be highest correlated to birth rate were average lifespan and infant mortality. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Peru had relatively lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality rates. And logically, this would make sense. If parents lost their child at a young age, they would most likely try to have another child.

While there is a general disapproval of artificial birth control among practitioners of Catholicism, statistics from the CIA World Factbook prove that that there is no correlation between high percentage of Catholics and higher birth rates.

Assignment #3 - Birth Rate and Ideology - William Cai

Nations With Catholic Percentages Higher Than 85%

Mexico
Roman Catholic: 82.7%
Birth Rate: 18.61 births/1,000 population (world rank 104)
Infant Mortality Rate: 16.26 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 103)
Life Expectancy: 76.86 years (world rank 72)
GDP Per Capita: $15,600 (world rank 88)
Average Education Level: 14 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 51.3% 

Brazil
Roman Catholic: 73.6%
Birth Rate: 14.97 births/1,000 population (world rank 133)
Infant Mortality Rate: 19.83 deaths/1,000 (world rank 93)
Life Expectancy: 73.02 years (world rank 127)
GDP Per Capita: $12,100 (world rank 106)
Average Education Level: 14 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 21.4% 

France
Roman Catholic: 83-88%
Birth Rate: 12.6 births/1,000 population (world rank 158)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.34 deaths/1,000 (world rank 215)
Life Expectancy: 81.56 years (world rank 15)
GDP Per Capita: $36,100 (world rank 40)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 7.8% 

Spain
Roman Catholic: 94%
Birth Rate: 10.14 births/1,000 population (world rank 193)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.35 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 214)
Life Expectancy: 81.37 years (world rank 16)
GDP Per Capita: $31,100 (world rank 47)
Average Education Level: 17 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 21.1% 

Portugal
Roman Catholic: 84.5%
Birth Rate: 9.59 births/1,000 population (world rank 200)
Infant Mortality Rate: 4.54 deaths/1,000 (world rank 188)
Life Expectancy: 78.85 years (world rank 49)
GDP Per Capita: $23,800 (world rank 65)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 18% 

Italy
Roman Catholic: 80%
Birth Rate: 8.94 births/1,000 population (world rank 210)
Infant Mortality Rate: 3.33 deaths/1,000 (world rank 216)
Life Expectancy: 81.95 years (world rank 11)
GDP Per Capita: $30,600 (world rank 48)
Average Education Level: 16 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 19.6%

Nations With Catholic Percentages Lower Than 5% (Outgroups)

Thailand
Roman Catholic: not even listed
Birth Rate: 12.66 births/1,000 population (world rank 157)
Infant Mortality Rate: 15.41 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 107)
Life Expectancy: 74.05 years (world rank 115)
GDP Per Capita: $10,300 (world rank 116)
Average Education Level: 12 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 7.8%

Egypt
Roman Catholic: less than 0.4%
Birth Rate: 23.79 births/1,000 population (world rank 67)
Infant Mortality Rate: 23.3 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 80)
Life Expectancy: 73.19 years (world rank 124)
GDP Per Capita: $6,700 (world rank 143)
Average Education Level: 12 years
Population Below Poverty Line: 20% 

Singapore
Roman Catholic: less than 1.4%
Birth Rate: 7.91 births/1,000 population (world rank 221)
Infant Mortality Rate: 2.59 deaths/1,000 live births (world rank 221)

Life Expectancy: 84.07 years (world rank 4)
GDP Per Capita: $61,400 (world rank 7)
Average Education Level: N/A
Population Below Poverty Line: N/A


Analysis

Looking at the data and statistics, it appears to me that a high percentage of Catholicism does not have a correlation with a high birth rate. For example, Spain has the highest percentage of Roman Catholics (94%), yet has a birth rate of 10.14 births/1,000 population, which is lower than the birth rate in Mexico (82.7% Roman Catholic), Brazil (73.6% Roman Catholic), and France (83-88% Roman Catholic). 

In fact, ranking the six countries by ‘Roman Catholic %’ and by ‘Birth Rate’ yields two very different lists:
Roman Catholic % (high to low): Spain, France, Portugal, Mexico, Italy, BrazilBirth Rate (high to low):  Mexico, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy

The lists do not seem very correlated at all. In addition, the outgroups that I considered further support the lack of correlation. Egypt in particularly has an almost negligible percentage of Catholicism, yet the highest birth rate out of all the countries I looked at. Overall, this lets me conclude that there is actually a very low correlation between Catholicism and a high birth rate, at least in the sample space of countries I considered.

Next, we can consider other variables besides Catholicism to see if there is a better correlation with a high birth rate. We can do this by applying the same logic as before and ranking the countries based on each variable.  Looking at life expectancies and GDP per capita, there does not seem to be much correlation at all. However, comparing birth rates with infant mortality rates does seem to give some sort of correlation. The list of countries is:Infant Mortality Rate (high to low): Brazil, Mexico, Portugal, France, Spain, Italy

If you compare this to the list above (ranking Birth Rate), there seems to be a slight correlation, as a lower birth rate is correlated with a lower infant mortality rate. While this correlation may be rather weak, it certainly is more comparable than percentage of Catholicism. The same can be said for ‘Average Education Level’, where a lower birth rate tends to lead towards a higher education level.

However, the factor that seems to have the biggest correlation is “Population Below Poverty Line”. Here is the ranking:Population Below Poverty Line (low to high): Mexico, Brazil, Spain, Italy, Portugal, France

If you compare this again with the above ranking for “Birth Rate”, the two lists are very similar, with the exception of France. Even with a sample size of only six countries, there seems to be a rather strong correlation, where a high birth rate is correlated with a low “Population Below Poverty Line”. This makes sense conceptually because in the developed countries I considered families in poverty would be less likely to have children, so a lower amount of poverty in an overall economy would lead to a higher birth rate.

This analysis shows that there are factors displaying stronger correlation than that of percentage of Catholicism, showing that other factors are likely correlated more closely than religious belief. In conclusion, it seems as though while there is a technologically conservative prohibition against birth control among Catholic populations, the lack of correlation between “Birth Rate” and “Roman Catholic %” shows that the prohibition does not really have an influence on birth control use, which would have been reflected in a high birth rate.

Assignment #3 – Birth Rate and Ideology – Eric Kim

6 Nations with Catholic Percentages Higher than 65%

Italy

% of Catholics- 80%

Birth Rate- 8.94 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 10.01 deaths.1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 3.33 deaths/1,000 population

Average Lifespan- 81.95 years

Average Income- $24,216

Average Educational Level- 16 years

Unemployment- 10.6%

Mexico

% of Catholics- 82.7%

Birth Rate- 18.61 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 4.94 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 16.26 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 76.96 years

Average Income- $12,732

Average Educational Level- 14 years

Unemployment- 9.8%

Spain

% of Catholics- 94%

Birth Rate- 10.14 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 8.94 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 3.35 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 81.37 years

Average Income- $22,847

Average Educational Level- 17 years

Unemployment- 25.1%

France

% of Catholics- 83-88%

Birth Rate- 12.6 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 8.96 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 3.34 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 81.56 years

Average Income- $36,300

Average Educational Level- 16 years

Unemployment- 10.3%

United Kingdom

% of Catholics- 71.6%

Birth Rate- 12.26 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 9.33 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 4.5 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 80.29 years

Average Income- $37,500

Average Educational Level- 17 years

Unemployment- 8%

Brazil

% of Catholics- 73.6%

Birth Rate- 14.97 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 6.51 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 19.83 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 73.02 years

Average Income- $12,100

Average Educational Level- 14 years

Unemployment- 5.5%

3 Nations with Catholic Percentages Lower than 5%

Bangladesh

% of Catholics- <0.9%

Birth Rate- 22.07 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 5.67 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 47.3 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 70.36 years

Average Income- $2,100

Average Educational Level- 8 years

Unemployment- 5%

Turkey

% of Catholics- <0.2%

Birth Rate- 17.22 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 6.11 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 22.23 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 73.03 years

Average Income- $15,200

Average Educational Level- 14 years

Unemployment- 9.2%

Singapore

% of Catholics- 4.8%

Birth Rate- 7.91 births/1,000 population

Death Rate- 3.41 deaths/1,000 population

Infant Mortality Rate- 2.59 deaths/1,000 live births

Average Lifespan- 84.07 years

Average Income- $61,400

Average Educational Level- N/A

Unemployment- 1.9%

Conclusion

The aim of gathering this data in the first place was to confirm a correlation between the contraceptive prohibition imposed by the Catholic Papal Encyclical, Casti Connubii, and Catholic countries’ birth rates. After comparing various sets of data from 9 different countries (6 countries with >65% Catholic populations, and 3 with <5% Catholic populations), I concluded that Catholicism actually doesn’t play a role in creating higher birth rates.

First of all, the average global birth rate for 2012 was 19.15 births/1,000 population (CIA World Factbook). For simplicity’s sake, we will assume, in this case, that this number is a good measure of the “middle number” for birth rates across the world. The countries in my dataset disproved that Catholic countries have higher birth rates, because the only two countries of nine that surpassed the average global birth rate were Turkey and Bangladesh at 17.22 and 22.07 births / 1000 population, respectively.

Then what causes the disparities in birth rates across the different countries, if they are not attributed to religious beliefs? The biggest and most easily verifiable one is the correlation between infant mortality rates and birth rates. As discussed in class, less developed countries with lower incomes are more likely to have higher birth rates because the underdeveloped infrastructure and health care systems cause a proportionally higher infant mortality rate as well. In a developed country, many people would be content with having one child because the early survival of that child is basically guaranteed with advanced health care. In less fortunate parts of the world, parents must commit to having several children in their lifetime in order to ensure the survival of their lineage. This correlation can be shown in countries like Bangladesh and Spain. The non-Catholic country Bangladesh has a birth rate of 22.07 births/1,000 population, which is above the average. However, the country also has an infant mortality rate of 47.3 deaths/1,000 live births, which are a lot higher than the numbers of the Catholic country Spain, with birth rates of 10.14/1,000 and infant mortality rates of 8.94/1,000. The same relationship can be shown between developed, high-income countries like the UK, which has a high percentage of Catholics, and Singapore, which doesn’t. Both countries are well below the average birth rate, and although the UK’s rate is a little bit higher, it can be attributed to the equally higher infant mortality rate.  

Tapping into the correlation between the birth rates and infant mortality rates is just the tip of the iceberg of the underlying issues that could exist in this complex problem. As I mentioned earlier, the causes could range anywhere from health care systems to public infrastructure, and from cultural traditions to education levels. We can see that the general trend is that – if the relationships between the varying factors had to be placed on a spectrum – high birth rates and infant mortality rates would be correlated with low education, low GDP per capita, low life expectancy, and urbanization to name a few.

All in all, although this is a very complex issue with no definite answer, we can see that the numbers show no tangible correlation between religious beliefs in Catholicism and high birth rates due to the prohibition of birth control methods.